Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Gronk and Jimmy: Elite Tight Ends

Tight End Strategy Fantasy Football 2012
Rob Gronkowski had 17 receiving touchdowns last year, and 1327 yards receiving. Jimmy Graham had 11 touchdowns and 1310 yard receiving. They both had exceptional years. This year Gronkowski is predicted to put up 195 points. That would put him 1 point ahead of Julio Jones. This would make him the second best non QB or non RB option. The other interesting aspect of the Tight End position is there are only so many who produce many points. We will examine this soon. Before that we will look at how strong Graham and Gronkowski performed last year.

2011 Fantasy Points from Yahoo
Top 5 WR
  1. Calvin Johnson 263.20
  2. Jordy Nelson 216.30
  3. Wes Welker 213.90
  4. Victor Cruz 205.90
  5. Larry Fitzgerald 189.10

Top 5 TE
  1. Rob Gronkowski 240.90
  2. Jimmy Graham 195
  3. Aaron Hernandez 135.50
  4. Tony Gonzalez 129.50
  5. Jermichael Finley 124.70

As you can see Gronkowski put up tons of fantasy points. He was second to Calvin Johnson in terms of non RB/QB players. In 2011, Rob Gronkowski had a better fantasy year then EVERY SINGLE WR besides Calvin Johnson.  Below are the predictions for this year, all courtesy of Yahoo.

 2012 Predictions from Yahoo
Top 5 WR
  1. Calvin Johnson 252
  2. Julio Jones 194
  3. Hakeem Nicks 181
  4. Greg Jennings 180
  5. Larry Fitzgerald 177
Top 5 TE
  1. Rob Gronkowski 195
  2. Antonio Gates 174
  3. Jimmy Graham 173
  4. Aaron Hernandez 141
  5. Jason Witten 126

I am unsure if Gates will put up 174 points this year. Even if he does, the Tight End position has a steep drop off once it goes beyond the top three. Elite tight ends are worth a second round pick. Gronkowski and Graham can give you points that the high end receivers do, the other players in your league will not have the same kind of production from the Tight Ends they draft. The point difference between the elite tight ends and the rest is large. If you see Rob Gronkowski in the second round and believe he will help your team draft him. In a ten man league I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers in the first, Gronkowski in the second, and Marshawn Lynch in the third. That was an extremely successful draft. If you can draft Gronkowski or Graham in the second round do it. You can find 150-170 point wide receivers to meet your needs, there is not an abundance of Tight Ends.  Gronkowski could put up well over 195 fantasy points, Graham and Gates also have the potential for big years. Aaron Hernandez is also a good later round option. Tight Ends are an interesting position in fantasy. There are only so many decent ones. It is an important position to have a decent player, but it is an incredible advantage if you can get an elite one.

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