Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Quarterback Importance: Why Aaron Rodgers is worth a 1st round pick

The traditional view in fantasy football has been to grab a high point producing runningback in the first round. I recently grabbed Aaron Rodgers as the fifth pick in a ten man league. The league rewards 6 points for TD's, some leagues only reward 4 points. Regardless of the points given for touchdowns, an elite quarterback is a serious asset to your fantasy team. I pulled the numbers from the fftoolbox.com with their 2011 fantasy points. I was able to generate these numbers.

Averages!
  • Top 5 QB's =386.66
  • QB's 5-10=288.24
  • Point difference of 98.42
The average of the Top 5 QB's is 386.66, the average for the 5th to 10th fantasy point producers is 288.24. It is clearly a big difference in having a top 5 QB on your team versus someone from the 6 to 10 range.

I believe Aaron Rodgers is going to have a great year. On Yahoo he is predicted to put up 425 points, the next best quarterback is 361 points (Drew Brees). Rodgers is definitely worth a first round pick. I also believe Brady, and possibly Brees warrant an early pick. Brady and Brees have different projections depending on which website you reference, I personally believe Brady will have the better year. Drafting a QB in the first depends on how many teams are in your league. In a 10 man league I would definitely take Rodgers or Brady in the first. In a 12 man league I would take Rodgers or Brady but be worried about my running game due to the two extra people picking in the first round. In a ten man league there will be opportunities to take a RB in the second round. In a 12 man league the options might be a bit more sparse. Aaron Rodgers is a good draft pick. The difference between having him and a guy like Matt Ryan is over 100 projected points. Taking a quarterback in the first round is fine, you just have to be prepared to draft very intelligently. You have to have several potential picks each round, and you CAN NOT ignore your runningback situation. Here are the Top 10 Quarterbacks for this year based off Yahoo projections. I personally believe Tom Brady is projected to low.  To summarize; it is a good thing to draft an elite quarterback, just be prepared to draft smart, and look for valuable players in every round.

Top 10 Quarterbacks based off Yahoo Predictions
  1. Aaron Rodgers 426
  2. Drew Brees 361
  3. Matt Stafford 337
  4. Cam Newton 335
  5. Tom Brady 332
  6. Peyton Manning 310
  7. Matt Ryan 309
  8. Tony Romo 304
  9. Phillip Rivers 282
  10. Eli Manning 276

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