The Calvin Johnson Rule and Wide Receiver Drafting

The Calvin Johnson Rule

And it was written... I will not draft a wide receiver in the first two rounds... Unless he bears the nickname MEGATRON. 

If Calvin Johnson does what he is predicted to do this year, he will put up the 20^th most fantasy points. Who is in front of him? 17 quarterbacks and 2 runningbacks. Yahoo believes he will put up 249 fantasy points. The next closest WR is over 50 points behind him, it's Julio Jones. Calvin Johnson is the only wide receiver who I believe warrants a draft pick in the first two rounds. I have seen Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall go in the second round. The problem with grabbing receivers in the second round is you are missing out on other more important commodities. The point difference amongst the average of the Top 5 WR vs the 6-10 WR is the smallest. Whether or not you think Marshall and Julio Jones will have big years, it is only really worth taking either of those WR's if you think they will put up Calvin Johnson like numbers. I would much rather grab a runningback or elite quarterback in the first and second rounds and then rely on receivers like Percy Harvin, Wes Welker, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker. There are plenty of great receivers who can be had in the third and fourth rounds. Don't waste a pick in the first two, unless it's Calvin Johnson. You will see from the numbers below that Calvin is truly an exceptional point producer and far exceeds other wide receivers.

Last Years Top 5 WR (Yahoo Fantasy Points)

• Calvin Johnson 263.20
• Jordy Nelson 216.30
• Wes Welker 213.90
• Victor Cruz 205.90
• Larry Fitzgerald 189.10

Top 5 WR Predicted Points 2012 (Yahoo Fantasy Points)

• Calvin Johnson 252
• Julio Jones 194
• Hakeem Nicks 181
• Greg Jennings 180
• Larry Fitzgerald 177